Here’s what I’m watching this week. A July 3 housing inventory update from ResiClub Analytics put a number on something I’ve been feeling in the files we work: the national inventory picture has cooled off, but the headline number hides what’s really going on underneath. My read is that where you’re buying matters more right now than the national story — and that’s worth understanding before you make a move.
The national number, and why it’s misleading
Per that ResiClub report, nationally aggregated active inventory grew just 1.9% year over year between June 2025 and June 2026 — a sharp deceleration from the roughly 28.9% growth the year before. On a national basis, we’re still about 9.6% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Read quickly, that sounds like “inventory is tight again.” But a single national average blends very different local markets together, and that’s where it gets interesting.
The real story is regional
The same report notes that 17 states are now above their pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels — including Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Colorado, and Washington. Much of the Sun Belt and Mountain West has neared or passed 2019 supply, while the Midwest and Northeast remain comparatively tight.
In plain terms: in a good chunk of the country, buyers have more homes to choose from than they’ve had in years. In other regions, the shelves are still thin. Two buyers with identical finances can be having completely different experiences depending on their zip code.
My take: what more inventory does for a buyer
When a local market has healthier supply, a few things tend to shift in the buyer’s favor:
- More choice. You’re comparing several homes instead of fighting over the one that came up.
- More negotiating room. Where inventory has built up, sellers tend to price realistically from the start and are more open to terms.
- Less pressure. You can take a beat to make a sound decision instead of waving contingencies to win a bidding war.
That doesn’t mean “wait forever” — it means that in looser markets, patience is less expensive than it was a couple of years ago.
And where it’s still tight
In the constrained markets, the old playbook still applies: know what you can borrow before you shop, move decisively when the right home appears, and have your financing buttoned up so your offer is credible. A seller choosing between two offers leans toward the one that looks certain to close.
Either way — loose market or tight — the single most useful thing you can do is get fully pre-approved so you know your real budget and can act with confidence. Running the numbers on a couple of scenarios with our calculators before you tour homes is time well spent.
What I’d keep in perspective
I’m not going to tell you where prices or the broader market head next — nobody credible can, and I’m not in the prediction business. What I can say is that the “national housing market” is a bit of a fiction when it comes to your actual purchase. You’re buying one home, in one market, with its own supply and its own dynamics. The healthiest thing you can do is understand your local conditions and your own financing, then let those two facts drive the decision rather than a headline.
If you want a read on how supply looks where you’re shopping — and what financing fits that particular market — send me the area you’re considering. We work across 22 states, so there’s a good chance I can tell you which side of this regional divide you’re on and how to play it.
Sources: ResiClub Analytics — State Inventory Update, July 3, 2026
About the author: Michael Kerby is the Founder & President at Ignite Loan Partners, NMLS #1163561. Read Michael's bio →
This article is for general education and isn't financial advice or a commitment to lend. Loan programs, terms, and availability depend on your qualifications and are subject to credit approval. Ignite Loan Partners, NMLS #2381991. Equal Housing Opportunity.